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Updates and publications from the RiskManager, analysis and tools. Come back to this section to stay up to date.

Published: 07-April-2026 · Anti-Inflation Portfolio · EUR/USD · Helium · Fertilizers · Falsifiers · Official Sources
Anti-inflation 20% portfolio — EUR/USD, helium and fertilizers 2026

Sections V-VIII: Supply-shock anti-inflation portfolio with exact percentages, EUR/USD 0.90-1.00 strategy, week-by-week checklist and the 4 scenario falsifiers. Official sources: USGS, EIA, ECB, FAO.

Published: 07-April-2026 · Supply Shock · Stagflation · ECB · Ormuz · Helium · Cash · Salary · Housing · Fixed Mortgage
20% inflation survival guide Europe 2026 — supply shock

Wars, Ormuz, fertilizers and helium: the silent plunder eroding 1.5% of your purchasing power every month. What to do with your cash, salary and housing. Data verified as of April 7, 2026.

Published: 31-March-2026 · Nash · Bayesian Equilibrium · War Room · IWM Puts · Gold · EUR/USD · Three Market Acts
Nash, Bayes and the War Room — FED/ECB April 2026

The FED×ECB Nash Matrix yields the inevitable equilibrium: FED cuts 25bps, ECB pauses. P(Type B) ≈ 70% per the 5Y BEIR. Three Market Acts post-decision and the complete tactical plan: gold, VIX, IWM, EUR/USD and T-Bond 30Y.

Published: 31-March-2026 · FED FOMC April 2026 · ECB · Game Theory · Cross-Regional Real Rates · VIX 30 · Fear&Greed 9
The board no one wants to look at — FED, ECB and Game Theory

SP500 6,343, VIX 30, Fear & Greed 9/100 and oil at $100 after Ormuz. Six players, real utility functions and the Cross-Regional statistical anomaly (+2.6σ above historical mean) demanding correction after 18-20 months.

Published: 30-March-2026 · SERIES FINALE · Petro-Yuan · String of Pearls · Checkmate · Exorbitant Privilege · Dollar's End
The Silent Checkmate: Petro-Yuan, String of Pearls and the collapse of the dollar's exorbitant privilege

The silent checkmate: cable by cable, port by port, yuan by yuan. How the 4 simultaneous vectors — seabed warfare, String of Pearls, Petro-Yuan and informational superiority — execute the transition to a post-American world without firing a single shot.

Published: 30-March-2026 · Confirmed Real Event · Baltic Cables · Taiwan Feb 2026 · EU €347M · NATO MAINSAIL · Repair Vessels
February 2026: two simultaneous theatres — Baltic Sea and Taiwan Strait, cables cut 9 minutes apart

February 8, 2026: two theatres, two simultaneous cuts. 45 days' wait for the Baltic. 60 for Taiwan. €347 million from the EU acknowledging no one was prepared. Forensic timeline of the seabed's first D-Day.

Published: 30-March-2026 · Transparent Ocean · Sensor Network · Sri Lanka · Ream Base · Dong Fang Hong 3 · Metamaterials · Blue-Green Laser
The Great Underwater Wall: NARAS network, Transparent Ocean, anti-sonar metamaterials and blue-green laser at 4,000 metres depth

The Great Underwater Wall: Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Solomon Islands, Pakistan. The Transparent Ocean Project giving China visibility of every naval move in the Indo-Pacific. Metamaterials that render a submarine hull invisible. Blue-green laser at 1 Gbps at 4,000 metres.

Published: 30-March-2026 · AJX-002 · Prototype Swarm · Blue Whale · Boeing Orca · XXLUUV · Yulin Base · 200 drones vs 3
The abyss arsenal: AJX-002, swarm of 200 XXLUUV drones, Blue Whale, Boeing Orca and Yulin underground base

The arsenal: AJX-002 shadow-layer, swarm of 200+ drones vs 3 American Orcas, 40-metre XXLUUV, Blue Whale (Israel vs China), Yulin underground base. The Attrition tactic: forcing the US to spend million-dollar missiles against thousand-dollar drones.

Published: 30-March-2026 · Submarine Cables · 97% Internet · 100% SWIFT · Chokepoints · Diamond Disc · CSSRC · Luzon Strait · Bab-el-Mandeb
The world's umbilical cord: Indo-Pacific submarine cable network, Ormuz, Malacca and Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoints

97% of internet and 100% of SWIFT travel through cables thinner than a fist, with no active protection, at 4,000 metres depth. China has a robot with a diamond disc that can cut them in 5 minutes. The 3 chokepoints that, cut simultaneously, bring civilisation to a halt.

Published: 26-March-2026 · Corralito Series (2/2) · Regulation · REPO Act · IEEPA · Petrodollar · Financial Geopolitics
Web of US regulatory rules trapping sovereign bonds

SEC Rule 13f-2, DTCC haircuts, REPO Act, IEEPA and Basel III: the complete map of the regulatory framework turning the petrodollar Sheikhs' stealth exit into a high-risk operation. The 21st-century golden cage: you cannot leave without being seen, you cannot stay without being charged, you cannot go to China without your luggage confiscated.

Published: 26-March-2026 · Corralito Series (1/2) · Short Interest · TLT · Synthetic Short · Dark Pools · COT/CFTC · Basis Trade
Iceberg chart of short interest in the US bond market, TLT

120.75 million short shares in TLT. 23.27% of float bet against. $14.38 billion in visible notional — and between 20 and 55x more invisible in futures and OTC derivatives. Full iceberg dissection: 27/02→13/03/2026 anomaly, leveraged Basis Trade, sovereign long capitulation and FTDs signalling artificial Fed liquidity.

Published: 19-March-2026 · Silicon Series (2/2) · Geopolitics · Taiwan · TSMC · Maritime Thriller
Three sailors in a Bandar Abbas bar, Iranian port in the background

Bandar Abbas. Kostas' bar. 23 Shuiqiao barges in Guangzhou. Operation Justice 2025 and the 130 planes. The yuan insurance consortium. And the shortwave radio that tells the captain what intelligence desks will take weeks to process: the world just lost its damned silicon brains.

Published: 19-March-2026 · Silicon Series (1/2) · Geopolitics · Maritime Thriller · Drones · Petro-Yuan
Filipino captain on the bridge of MV Dragon of Jade in Shanghai at night

76,800 drone components in hold 4. A 26-year-old Navy officer and the MARPOL 73/78 Convention. Forty years at sea outweighing them all combined. Captain Roger 'Ro' Macaraeg discovers that the ship he commands is the shield of Ormuz.

Published: 19-March-2026 · Ormuz Series (3/3) · Geopolitics · Drones · Petrodollar
Elderly Iranian man pruning Nowruz roses in a Persian garden with Tehran in the background

200:1 ratio confirmed. The recycled lawnmower engine that exposed the Pentagon's shame. Drones immune to jamming. Iron Beam defeated by physics. The Chinese supply chain no sanction can cut. And Baba in his Nowruz garden: 'Empires don't fall from bombs. They fall from the hum of a recycled engine.'

Published: 18-March-2026 · Ormuz Series (2/3) · Geopolitics · Bonds · Petrodollar
Supertanker paralysed in front of the Strait of Ormuz at sunset

Ten mines. A Bear Steepener heading to 5%. Dubai emptied in ten days without a single shot fired. The fertilizers that didn't cross the Strait arrive as famine in autumn. And in a Tehran garden, an old man drinks tea and no longer needs to explain anything.

Published: 18-March-2026 · Ormuz Series (1/3) · Geopolitics · Macro · Petrodollar
Journalist in a dark studio in Madrid with maps of the Middle East

How Iran demolished dollar hegemony without firing a nuclear missile. The journalist with an Iranian family who knew two days in advance from the Tehran garden. Prologue + Acts 1-4: yuan at Ormuz, blind CENTCOM, Iron Dome at 30%, 1,000 drones a day in the Zagros.

Published: 14-March-2026 · Macro · Inflation · Fixed Income
BEIR curve peaking at 5 years — the deflationary mirage of 2026

The BEIR curve screams a 5-year inflationary shock. The Bear Steepener destroys fixed income in 120 hours. The strong DXY hides that the dollar is worth 30% less than 15 years ago. Three acts. One illusion. One bill. Central banks declared victory too soon.

Published: 13-March-2026 · Series: Recruited by Uncle Sam (2/2)
Email screen with the resignation letter at 2:47 AM — the silent collapse of the subcontracted soldier

Iran doesn't need to destroy the servers. It just needs system administrators to be scared enough to stop going to work. The asymmetric checkmate: terror → absenteeism → silent collapse of military AI infrastructure. And the resignation letter that may or may not save your life.

Published: 13-March-2026 · Series: Recruited by Uncle Sam (1/2)
Tasnim News Agency infographic listing enemy tech infrastructure: IBM, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Google, Nvidia

The Tasnim infographic was not a bombing map. It was an activation signal for sleeper cells worldwide. IBM, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Google, Nvidia — with coordinates. Uncle Sam recruited you in the fine print of your IT contract.

Published: 11-March-2026 · Series: The War and AI (2/2)
Dubai at dawn: the global tech hub before the talent and capital exodus

Talent flees, capital repatriates and chip orders are cancelled simultaneously. Oracle loses the civilian Gulf but wins the war-economy contract. Who picks up the pieces when the smoke of hegemony dissipates?

Published: 11-March-2026 · Series: The War and AI (1/2)
The Strait of Ormuz and the Gulf data centres: the master switch of global AI

The Strait of Ormuz is not a 20th-century oil problem. It is the master switch of the 21st-century inference economy. A $20k drone against a $2B datacenter: the thermodynamics of conflict favour Iran.

100-billion-dollar Data Centers vs a 3-watt chip: the paradox of modern AI

Scaling Laws have hit the Data Exhaustion wall. Edge AI is cannibalising the cloud model. Shadow Banking financed GPUs now worth half. All this while Wall Street applauds the CAPEX. Three acts. One single conclusion.

Regime Risk: Synchronisation of geopolitical, economic and institutional events

The perfect storm in 72 hours: confluence of geopolitical (Greenland), economic (tariffs) and institutional (SCOTUS) events during MLK Day. When political risk walks in through the door, liquidity jumps out the window.

Historical record of TLT short interest

Short interest in $TLT of 150.5M (~27% of float), MOVE at lows and gamma flip at 6,881: structural hedge, weaponisation of the dollar and SCOTUS scenarios that can reprice the Treasury risk premium.

Unfair Sharpe Ratio: cash drag, time in market and RINA Index

Why the annualised Sharpe penalises low-exposure systems (mean reversion / rotational) and which ratios to watch to detect elite snipers.

Gamma Exposure SPX 6,854

Gamma flip at 6,854 points, market without insurance (SKEW 141) and the crisis in Caracas ready to force cascade selling. We analyse repo morphine, the tax-harvesting dam and the volatility trap for Monday.

Historical audit: US 2Y Yield nominal vs annualised realised inflation

Historical audit (1976–present) of the US 2Y: when the short bond protected wealth (green bars) and when inflation eroded the coupon (red bars). Reading by regimes: 70s, Volcker era, 2001/2008 crisis, ZIRP and the current return to positive real rates.

Published: 21-Dec-2025
Update 22-Dec-2025
The Last Supper of Complacency: VIX and 17% contango

17% contango, VVIX at 83.87 and QE as anaesthetic. X-ray of extreme complacency: short gamma risk, roll yield at highs and signals of a possible Volmageddon 2.0.

SP500 Seasonal Master Map

The Architecture of Time: a quantitative approach decoding the seasonal DNA of the S&P 500. Presenting the Master Map, a high-fidelity tool to optimise timing, reduce exposure and capitalise on structural anomalies.

Engineering the return distribution: Equity Curve

Recorta colas, crea convexidad y convierte los pánicos en combustible del compuesto. De carteras frágiles a arquitecturas con sesgo positivo (Positive Skew) en un mundo post-Gran Moderación.

Night Effect: SPY S&P 500 Day vs Night

Cómo nuestro equipo identifica el True Driver que puede neutralizar o invertir el Night Effect. Alta ingeniería financiera aplicada a cobertura Short Overnight, con validación transversal y métricas históricas: 554 operaciones, 52% acierto, PF 1.57.

Updated regularly · Full transparency
Reports and track records section

Accede a la Zona de Informes y Track Records: resultados reales, análisis de riesgo y rendimiento, con impacto divisa, carteras Absolute Sigma y la galería de track records.

Published: 04-Dec-2025 · Last update: 06-Dec-2025
Term Structure 05-Dec-2025

Radiografía del Short Volatility Crowded Trade: VIX bajo, contango ordenado y VVIX deprimido. Analizamos el roll yield (+11–12%), el riesgo de crowding y los catalizadores (Fed, Big Tech/IA) que pueden convertir la calma en Volmageddon.

Published: 01-Dec-2025
Sector rotation - Market Carpet 1 Month

From tech euphoria to defensiveness. Macro reading (end of QT, employment, dot plot) and rotation towards Health/Utilities. How the Blue Income strategy positions the portfolio for winter.

Financial Calculator - Compound Interest

Simula tu inversión considerando comisiones, impuestos e inflación. Visualiza el impacto real en gráficos y tablas y compara regímenes fiscales. Además, descubre el artículo clave con conclusiones demoledoras sobre cómo las comisiones y la inflación pueden destruir tu patrimonio compuesto. ¿Crees que un 1% no importa? Ese 1% puede costarte decenas de miles de euros a 10–20 años. Entra y compruébalo.

Casos de uso: planificación de jubilación, ahorro educativo, depósitos vs inflación, y fondos indexados con diferimiento. Configura los parámetros y prueba escenarios reales.

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